Wednesday 14 October 2009

How much further can we go?

The uptrend in most risky assets continues with unabated speed this morning. If we look at the S&P 500 we are still very much in an uptrend but things looks a bit stretched if you like at historical patterns.

The average autumn correction in the S&P from the highs from August and September to the Q4 low is almost 9% since 1964 with -36.1% the worst year and +0.4% the best year. The low for Aug/Sept this year was 979, and the low for this quarter is so far 1025, so if we dont have another correction below the 1000 level it will be the weakest Q4 correction in 45 years.

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